The names Ketut and Nyoman in Bali are almost extinct, as a result of the long-term family planning program during the New Order era which recommended that each family have only two children.
Wayan Koster, Governor of Bali, said that currently (2023) 79% of the 758,174 students in Bali use the Balinese name structure, the rest do not use Balinese names.
Of the 595,931 students who used Balinese names, 39% used the first child’s name (Putu, Wayan, Gede), 36% used the second child’s name (Made, Kadek, Nengah), 18% used the third child’s name (Komang, Nyoman), and only 6% or as many as 37,389 students use the fourth child’s name (Ketut).
The total birth rate in the province of Bali has decreased in the last 50 years, in 1971 a woman gave birth to an average of 5-6 children, in 2020 a woman in Bali only gave birth to 2-3 children. This is a challenge to how to maintain the population in the future.
The portrait of population in Bali which is reflected in the name structure in the family culturally seems to also be a summary of the bigger picture of population at the global level, population collapse is the biggest threat to civilization.
When I borrowed Patricia Cornwell views, I’ve always found inspiration in examining humanity - our deepest emotions, our shared struggles, and the challenges we may face collectively in the future. Lately, one trend in particular has been weighing on my mind - the seismic drop in global birth rates that threaten a population collapse with wide-reaching consequences.
The statistics coming out of countries around the world paint a sobering picture. Japan recently saw its largest annual population decline since records began over 50 years ago. Here in the United States, once a symbol of unchecked growth, birth rates seem to have flatlined as fewer children are being born. Even powerhouses like China, long associated with its massive population, recorded a record low fertility rate last year. Across Europe, Italy, the UK and more are battling some of the smallest populations seen in modern history.
As an introspective writer, I can’t help but reflect on what may be driving this shift. For some, the modern era has replaced large families with single children or choosing to remain childless due to economic pressures, long work hours and high costs of living that make raising kids difficult. A lack of community and family support structures that once facilitated child-rearing may also play a role.
On a deeper level, many experts point to a crisis of spirit - of purpose and meaning. In a fast-paced, digitally overwhelmed world, are we sacrificing our connection to each other and future generations on the altar of short-term fulfillment? Without a stake in the future, bringing new life into an uncertain world loses its appeal.
Regardless of the causes, the implications of population decline are massive. Fewer workers will be left to support aging populations and economies could stagnate without a consumer base to drive growth. Social systems like pensions, healthcare and education face severe strain. On a global scale, political and military powers will shift as nations’ labor forces shrink.
Perhaps most ominous is the threat posed to human progress itself. Throughout history, populations have risen in tandem with our scientific, technological and cultural achievements. A reversal of that trend risks rolling back advances and limiting our potential. Some foresee a potential death spiral where depopulated countries lack the critical mass to innovate or evolve.
As a common citizen, my role is not to provide answers but to shed light on humanity’s shared challenges in a way that stirs reflection and dialogue. A looming population crisis has the potential to reshape our world in ways we have yet to comprehend. While its causes may feel distant, the consequences will touch us all. Only by facing this threat together and rekindling a collective sense of hope, purpose and future-mindedness can we overcome it. Our shared story is far from over.
